Back from vacation

Had a nice time visiting friends in Dallas. Enjoy:

Update: Runaway market

Up triple digits on the Dow now. The shorts are on there way here:




Off to have a big bowl of salad (ranch dressing, bacon bits and croutons) and a tuna sammich.

Party like it's 1999

Dow 13,000! Dow Transports at a record! Shorts getting their heads chopped off, the Naz on fire, S&P 500 rocking, the market is never, ever going to go back down again!

How's my tryout for CNBC going so far?

Really, I'm thankful everyday my stocks gain. The market is fun, making money is fun and seeing my portfolio track higher and higher is a blast!

Cheaters never win

Ok, so it's an old video, but I love it.



"Oh I think she's actually hurt"

Thanks for the insight Bob!

Channeling my inner "Fly"

While you retards are searching for the next big thing, my 'calculator brain' was busy making money. On a day where the market doesn't know whether it wants to go up or down, I'm raking in the cash thanks to EFX and MHP.


UPDATE: Having a medium-sized bowl of oatmeal.

EFX's earnings

They reported last night:

Equifax Inc., which provides consumer credit information and other financial data, on Monday posted a 10 percent increase in first-quarter profit on stronger demand for consumer data products in the U.S. and abroad.

Earnings increased to $69 million, or 54 cents per share, from $62.9 million, or 48 cents per share, in the prior-year period.

Revenue rose to $405.1 million, up 8 percent from $374 million a year ago.

Shares are up about 2.5% this morning. This is a stock that I'm holding for the long term. I started accumulating shares in July 2004 and doubled my position in the big sell off we had last June.

MHP blowing the doors off the quarter

Earnings this morning were a barn burner - they beat on both earnings and revenue.

McGraw-Hill Cos., owner of BusinessWeek magazine and the Standard & Poor's ratings and index business, said Tuesday that first-quarter profit nearly doubled on strong results in its financial services and education segments.

Net income leaped to $143.8 million, or 40 cents per share, compared with $74.2 million, or 20 cents per share, in the previous year.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings of 31 cents per share.

The current quarter's results included a $10.3 million, or 3 cents per share gain on the sale of a mutual fund data business.

The prior-year's results included a one-time charge of 4 cents per share for the elimination of a stock option program.

Revenue for the quarter rose 14 percent to $1.3 billion from $1.14 billion a year ago. Analysts had estimated sales at $1.24 billion.

And the stock is up over 6% while the rest of the market is struggling.

Off to have 6 daiquiris this morning...

I'm surprised that this didn't come out of the University of Miami:

A fruity cocktail may not only be fun to drink but may count as health food, U.S. and Thai researchers said on Thursday.

Adding ethanol -- the type of alcohol found in rum, vodka, tequila and other spirits -- boosted the antioxidant nutrients in strawberries and blackberries, the researchers found.

Any colored fruit might be made even more healthful with the addition of a splash of alcohol, they report in the Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture.

Dr. Korakot Chanjirakul and colleagues at Kasetsart University in Thailand and scientists at the U.S.
Department of Agriculture stumbled upon their finding unexpectedly.

They were exploring ways to help keep strawberries fresh during storage. Treating the berries with alcohol increased in antioxidant capacity and free radical scavenging activity, they found.

Any colored fruit or vegetable is rich in antioxidants, which are chemicals that can cancel out the cell-damaging effects of compounds called free radicals.

Berries, for instance, contain compounds known as polyphenols and anthocyanins. People who eat more of these fruits and vegetables have a documented lower risk of cancer, heart disease and some neurological diseases.

The study did not address whether adding a little cocktail umbrella enhanced the effects.

I'm gonna get healthy this weekend!

The Not-So-Good-Earnings Post

Altria missed by 2 cents:

International strength helped Altria offset a continuing slump in domestic volume but the tobacco titan's first-quarter earnings fell sharply, largely due to a big tax benefit it recorded in the year-ago period - but it still raised its full-year profit target.

Before the start of trading Thursday, Altria said it earned $2.75 billion, or $1.30 a share, down from $3.48 billion, or $1.65 a share. Much of that drop was due to 30 cent a share tax benefit in the first three months of 2006: Adjusted to exclude that and other items, the company would have earned $1.03 a share on a continuing operations basis.

The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial had been for Altria to earn $1.05 a share.

Revenue hit $17.56 billion, up 8.2% including a $722 million bonus from foreign currency conversion.

They raised their earnings target for the full year, but it's still below estimates:

Altria... raised its profit forecast from continuing operations for the year to a range of $4.20 to $4.25 a share, from its prior view of $4.15 to $4.20 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect it to earn $4.26 a share for the year, on average.

They are still looking into spinning off the international tobacco business:

Next up is the possible spinoff of its international business, but CFO Dinyar Devitre declined to comment on the possible timing of such a move, saying only that the unit is "organizationally ready to stand independently" when and if the board of directors makes a decision.

Next up, Bank of America. Earnings were up, but revenue was a little light and interest income was weak:

In the face of a challenging economic environment and a flat yield curve, Bank of America, the nation's second largest bank by market valuse, said it earned to $5.26 billion, or $1.16 a share, up from $4.99 billion, or $1.07 a share in the three months ended March 31.

Excluding pretax merger and restructuring charges of $111 million, equal to a penny a share, the Charlotte, N.C. financial services giant earned $5.33 billion, or $1.17 per share.
Revenue rose to $18.42 billion from $17.94 billion. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call forecast earnings of $1.15 a share and revenue of $18.45 billion, on average....

Card services posted average managed loan growth of $14.48 billion, an 8% increase, and added 3 million new accounts in the first quarter. Net new retail checking accounts grew by 487,000.

Investment banking fees rose 35%, driven by debt underwriting and mergers and acquisitions deal volume, the company said.

While I'm waiting on both stocks to go higher I can sit and earn 4.9% and 4.4% respectively from their dividends. I'd be a buyer of more shares of Bank of America at this level as I think the stock is 10% undervalued. While not undervalued at this level, I would probably be a buyer of additional shares of Altria here as well.

Rewinding the day

So the DOW broke 12,800 for the first time. Good, I didn't want to see a second day where the market failed to close above the previous high after breaking it during the day. That said, I'd have been happier if my portfolio did better today. I was basically flat at the end of the day with most of the gains in my financial stocks thanks to JP Morgan.

Working:

• BAC up 1%
• CORS up 3%
• UTX up 1.1% on earnings (see below)
• WB up 1.3%

Not Working:

• ABT down 1.6% (as I mentioned this morning)
• CEE down 1.7%
• EQIX down 1.6%
• KFT down 1.85%, but up a little bit in after hours trading thanks to earnings (see below)
• MVIS down 2.4%, looks like support is at $4.35 now
• SHLD down 1.8%

UTX had their earnings release earlier today:

United Technologies Corp. said on Wednesday strong demand for jet engines and Otis elevators, particularly from foreign markets, helped boost quarterly profit 6.6 percent.

The diversified manufacturer said strong growth in demand abroad, especially in Asia, and a weaker dollar more than offset the effects of a slowing U.S. housing market on its Carrier air conditioner unit and higher-than-expected raw materials prices.

"Clearly, the international markets were the primary driver for the sales growth in the quarter," said Tom D'Amore, an analyst at Morningstar. "The North American economy, at least for industrial companies, is clearly growing more slowly than European and Asian economies."

The Hartford, Connecticut-based company reported profit of $819 million, or 82 cents a share, up from $768 million, or 76 cents a share, a year earlier.

Analysts, on average, expected profit of 81 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Revenue came in at $12.28 billion, up 15.7 percent from $10.62 billion a year earlier. Three percent of the growth was the result of the dollar's depreciation, the company said.

Sales outside the United States account for about 60 percent of United Technologies' total revenue.

UTX is looking for 9 to 13% profit growth this year.

KFT released their earnings after the bell, not a great quarter, but no one was expecting a great one:

Kraft Foods Inc., the largest U.S. food company, posted lower first-quarter profit on Wednesday as it spent more on marketing to lift sales, but its shares rose 1 percent as it maintained its full-year outlook.

The foodmaker... said profit fell to $702 million, or 43 cents a share, from $1.01 billion, or 61 cents, a year earlier.

Excluding the costs of a restructuring and a gain from tax reserves transferred to Kraft from Altria, earnings were 44 cents a share, topping the average analyst target of 42 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

"The numbers were pretty much in line. The expectations on the Street were that this was not going to be a great quarter," said one portfolio manager who spoke on condition of anonymity because the manager's firm was actively trading Kraft stock...

For the year the year, the company affirmed its earnings forecast of $1.50 to $1.55 a share. Excluding restructuring costs, the forecast is $1.75 to $1.80 a share.

Analysts, on average, looked for $1.81 a share, according to Reuters Estimates.

I didn't buy Kraft, but got it in the spin-off from Altria, I am going to hang on to the stock though. I haven't looked deeply into it and probably won't for a little while because I think that their management can do some good things now with the freedom they have. I see an acquisition in the near future, meanwhile they are paying better than 3% on the dividend and are buying back shares.

10 Days til the Draft

Denver was last in starting field position...

With the 21st pick in the draft, the Broncos select:

Important Beer News

Wisconsin lawmakers passes a law allowing for free 6oz tasters of beer to be made available in liquor and grocery stores! This needs to pass other states now (I'm probably not going to live in Wisconsin, certainly not anytime soon).

Both chambers of the Legislature unanimously gave key approval Tuesday to allow grocery and liquor stores to hand out beer samples up to 6 ounces to a person of legal drinking age.

"It's a good bill. It's a Wisconsin bill. It's a beer bill," said Republican Rep. Scott Newcomer one of the measure's main sponsors.

Current state law allows wineries to offer up to 6 ounces of free samples.

Sen. Pat Kreitlow, a Democrat from Chippewa Falls, home of the Jacob Leinenkugel Brewing Co., is the bill's main sponsor in the Senate. He said the measure would help brewers market a wider variety of specialty brands and compete with wine makers.

Pete Marino, a spokesman for Miller Brewing Co., which has been pushing the bill, said brewers should have the same chance to get the public to taste their products as wine makers.

"It's a great opportunity for them (consumers) to try the beers and figure out if they want to spend their hard-earned money to take the beer home with them," Marino said.

Right now, I can walk into a wine store here and get samples of wine to see if I want to buy a few bottles. It'd be nice to have that same freedom with beer. I like trying new beers and love local brews, but have bought some nasty beer as well. A sample would have saved me from wasting money on some gross beer and let me try others that I might not have purchased otherwise.

Hooray Beer!

Random notes for Wed

BAC is up on JP Morgan's strong earnings.

ABT is down despite raising full year guidance probably on profit taking seeing as the stock was at a 52-week high yesterday:

Medical device maker Abbott Laboratories Inc. said Wednesday its first-quarter profit fell 19 percent as the company wrote down the value of its holdings in Boston Scientific stock and incurred integration costs related to the purchase of assets from that company last year.

Benefiting from continued strong sales of its anti-inflammatory drug Humira, the company exceeded Wall Street estimates for earnings after expenses and also raised its guidance for full-year profits.

Shares in the company fell $1.21, or 2.1 percent, to $57.74 in morning trading on the New York Stock Exchange. Analysts said the decline reflected profit-taking after the stock had surged more than 50 percent since the beginning of last year, reaching an all-time high of $59.40 on Tuesday.

I expect ABT to be back up soon, if it drops under $55 I'm going to buy more.

EQIX is down with the weakness in tech, I would be a buyer at these levels (under $88) and I would back up the truck under $85, The Fly is right, this sucker is going to print $100 in the next few weeks. I expect great earnings next week.

It's Dividend Day as well, PGH paid its dividend on Sunday, but being Canadian, it took some time to get over the border and they took out the 15% tax on it already. I like the monthly dividends, but I am probably going to exit this position before the end of the year. I used to own a lot more, my cost basis is under $13, and sold most of my position when the stock was in the $22-$24 level.

Rewinding the day

Up, up, up. Not too much up today, but more up than down even if it's a smaller amount than the last few days is still a good thing.

The Good:

• GIS up 1%
• JNJ up 2.4% on strong earnings
• MHP up 2.9%
• SHLD up 1.8%

The not so good:

• DVN down 1.5%

Once again we look to earnings, earnings, earnings!

OKS ups payout

I always like it when a company gives me more money:

Oneok Partners LP, a natural gas liquids and natural gas pipeline partnership, on Tuesday boosted its quarterly cash distribution by a penny to 99 cents per unit.

Groovy

Rewinding the day

Good day for the markets, Great day for my portfolio. I was up about 1.3% thanks to broad gains from many of my stocks:

Working today:

• ACAS up 1.75%
• BAC up 1.6%
• CORS up 3.3%
• EFX up 1%
• EWZ up 1.3%
• IFN up 2.9%
• IWN up 1.25%
• JNJ up 1.1%
• MHP up 1.5%
• MVIS up 3.85%
• SHLD up 1.25%
• UTX up 1.1%
• WB up 2%
• WWY up 1.4%

Not working today:

• ENA down 3.5%

Earnings, earnings, earnings... So far so good.

Google = Stupid

I owned shares of Google Inc for a while, made some good money from them, and am completely happy I don't own them anymore (owned them from about $215 up to $425). Instead of doing a few things well, they are trying to do everything (poorly I might add):

Google Inc. and Clear Channel Communications Inc. announced a long-term agreement Sunday that will allow the Internet search leader to place advertising for its online customers on more than 675 Clear Channel radio stations.

"This radio partnership with Clear Channel is a pretty big statement that Google is in the radio industry to stay and have a big impact," said Drew Hilles, Google Audio's national sales director.

Ok, this is just retarded, which makes sense because the people who run Google are retarded. I no longer use Google search because Ask.com is better by far now, My Yahoo page is superior, Gmail is just ok (not that Yahoo is better), and blogger is run by a bunch of brain dead, poo-flinging monkeys. Now this advertising deal with CCU makes no sense. It smacks of "just try anything."

Beware the ides of Google or something like that. Is Google really worth 145 billion? I think not.

Bank of America + Chinese credit cards =$$$$

Some interesting news for Bank of America:

China Construction Bank Corp. and Bank of America Corp. will cooperate in a credit card business with the eventual goal of setting up a credit card joint venture in China, the Chinese lender said in a statement Monday.

The development strengthens the two banks' cooperation in China since Bank of America became a strategic investor in Construction Bank in 2005. Bank of America now holds an 8.52% stake in the Chinese lender.

Construction Bank said Bank of America will help in planning the new credit card business unit, as well as providing consulting services and overseeing the unit's operation.

The unit will be converted into a credit card joint venture to be owned 63% by Construction Bank and 37% by Bank of America "in an appropriate timeframe," the statement said.

Construction Bank Chairman Guo Shuqing, said in the statement he believes the alliance will "help CCB accomplish its strategic goal of developing its credit card business and enhance CCB's core competitiveness in this line of business.

The Chinese lender said it is the country's second-largest credit card issuing bank, with 6.34 million cards issued, or a market share of about 20%.

Let's do some quick math. If 20% of the credit card market right now is 6.5 (+/-) million, then the total number of credit cards in China is 32 (+/-) million. That is some serious growth potential - you could multiply that by ten fold and it still would only get to about 25% of the country. This is a great foothold for Bank of America to get significant slice of the Chinese credit market, which is still in its infancy.

And it makes the Bank of America management look pretty darn smart for their partnership with CCB in 2005 and their acquisition of MBNA. I still think BAC will make an acquisition of a European bank sometime in the next 12-18 months, and possibly Latin America too (Brazil most likely).

I am still adding to my BAC position. Especially at these levels, the stock is attractive in valuation and sports a fat 4.5% dividend yield.

Rewinding the day

A nice day today, started slow and picked up steam towards the end of the day (hmmm, where I have I heard that before?). The portfolio finished at an all-time high once again thanks to today's winners:

Working today

• ABT up 1.9%
• ACAS up 1%
• CORS up 2.2%
• EWZ up 1.9%
• KFT up 1.1%
• MVIS up 5.75%

Not working today:

• ENA down 10.5% fell off the cliff today. That's ok, big runs = good sized pull back, I expect probably another 10% down. Who knows, maybe there will be a move back up. A little bit of buying into the close so it didn't finish at the lows.

I'm off to pick up The Wife™ from work and head down to my parents house for a few days. Have a great weekend everyone!

Big Al Wilson's last day as a Bronco

Today is a sad day in Broncodom. Al Wilson, the leader of the defense has called a press conference at 4pm eastern to announce that he is being released by the Denver Broncos.

Denver Broncos linebacker Al Wilson scheduled a news conference Friday to announce he is being released by the Denver Broncos after eight seasons, sources said.

Wilson called a 4 p.m. ET meeting with the media in Denver to discuss his future, which will not include the Broncos, the team that made him a No. 1 draft choice in 1999 and allowed him to grow into the leadership role on playoff caliber defenses.

Wilson leaves the Broncos as a four-time Pro Bowl player and one of the top defenders in franchise history.

I guess he doesn't want to take a pay cut and stay with the Broncos and would rather test the open market. Denver tried trading him to the Giants, Lions and Eagles last month, but he failed a physical with the Giants.

Best wishes to Al, wherever he ends up.

MVIS and ENA moving in opposite diretions

Microvision (MVIS) is up over 3% this morning. There doesn't seem to be any news driving the gain right now, but I hope all those chartists are looking at the bullish chart today...

Enova (ENA) is down over 6% today. I think this is just some profit taking after the stock has doubled in the previous month. There were very strong gains that were less strong over the last couple of trading days, so some selling today seems normal.

If I have to have one of these two stocks up and one down, I'd take it the way it is today because I have a whole lot more MVIS than ENA.

UPDATE: Looks like those chartists are buying MVIS, it's up 6% now and volume is starting to pick up!

ABT pin action, MRK up

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) is up over 1% today, probably piggybacking on the Merck (MRK) news that a lot of lawsuits are going bye bye:

Shares of Merck & Co. soared to their highest price in three and a half years Friday after a federal judge dismissed an investor class action lawsuit against the company over Vioxx and reports that a state judge is about to try to dispose of thousands liability lawsuits in Texas.

Shares of the Whitehouse Station, N.J.-based drug maker surged $3.82, or 8.2 percent, to $50.18 in midday trading on the New York Stock Exchange at more than double their average volume. The price hit a high of $50.28 earlier in the session, a price not seen since October 2003.

Merck shares dropped 41 percent to the mid-$20 range in the month following the company's withdrawal of its arthritis pain reliever Vioxx from the market on Sept. 30, 2004, after the drug became associated with an increased heart attack risk.

In a ruling Thursday, Judge Stanley Chesler of the U.S. District Court in Newark dismissed investor claims against Merck because the claims were not made while statutes of limitations were in effect.

The lawsuit was dismissed with prejudice, meaning investors cannot file the suit again. Investors who had bought Merck stock between May 21, 1999, and Oct. 29, 2004, alleged the company had defrauded them by concealing information about the drug's safety risks. The earliest fraud complaint was filed in November 2003, according to court records.

In his opinion, the judge said that a Food and Drug Administration warning letter from Sept. 21, 2001, and attention from the media and financial analysts thereafter started the clock ticking on the two-year window that investors needed to file.

This is good and bad news - the good news is that Merck won't have to spend the legal fees and pay for any judgments, the bad news is that the lawsuits were thrown out on technicalities (and highlighting the need for tort reform in the US). For now, I'll take the news that is moving the Dow Jones average up today and helping out healthcare stocks.

Rewinding the day

Mr. Market started slowly today, but finished very nicely - buying into the close. The portfolio was back up today as well with nice gains all around. I only had a couple of stocks that were down today, but nothing big and not worth mentioning.

Working today:

• CEE up 1.6%
• DVN up 2%
• ENA up 2.4%
• EWZ up 1%
• KFT up 1.5% I was hoping for a better gain after being up 2% earlier in the day, but I'll take the nice gain over the last couple of days.
• MVIS up 1.7% I think that $4 is now a floor for Microvision.
• UTX up 1%
• WWY up 1.25%

Not working today:

• Nothing. Groovy.

We'll see how Mr. Market closes out the week tomorrow.

Mr. Market heading higher

The Dow is up about 40 points now. It looks like Mr. Market is gaining traction this afternoon. Let's keep it going!

UPDATE: Make that up 50 points now. Look out shorts, the squeeze is on.

What's for lunch today?

Arm on rye apparently.

A zoo worker had his forearm reattached Thursday after his colleagues recovered the severed limb from the mouth of a 440-pound Nile crocodile, an official said.

The crocodile severed Chang Po-yu's forearm on Wednesday at the Shaoshan Zoo in the southern city of Kaohsiung when the veterinarian tried to retrieve a tranquilizer dart from the reptile's hide, zoo officials said.

The Liberty Times newspaper said Chang failed to notice the crocodile was not fully anesthetized when he stuck his arm through an iron rail to medicate it.

The moral of the story kids is don't stick your arm into the crocodile cage unless you are 100% certain that the tranquilizer has taken effect.

Mr. Market confused, Kraft showing the way

Open down, moving up. Mr. Market is struggling here and needs some direction today, oil and jobless claims have him confused. Maybe we can help him?

Kraft Foods, Inc. (KFT) caught another upgrade for the second day in a row. Yesterday Davenport moved them from Neutral to Buy, today UBS just did the same. The stock is responding nicely with a two percent gain so far this morning after moving up two and a half percent yesterday when the rest of the market was down. I still think this stock is undervalued, looks like others are agreeing.

Stay tuned to see if we can gain any traction this afternoon.

Braves - Best in Baseball

Still standing above everyone else at 6-1, with another win over a division foe. This time it was Washington (1-7) getting pounded 8-0. The Mets and Marlins are sitting just one game back at 5-2, so we're not running away with the division crown just yet. Tim Hudson pitched well in the win and Jeff Francouer provided the offense with 5 runs batted in. The Braves have won 3 in a row and the Nats have lost 5 straight. The teams meet again tonight.

Let's go Braves!

UPDATE: They won again last night 8-3. Keep it going guys!

Rewinding the day

Market was off today, same with my portfolio. Not too worried, since I have had quite a good run over the last few weeks. Can't expect it to be up everyday.

Working today:

ENA up 4%
KFT up 2.5%

Not Working today:

BAC down 1%
CEE down 1.4%
CORS down 2%
DVN down 1%
EQIX down 1.4%
EWZ down 1.1%
MO down 1%
SHLD down 1.4%

I think tomorrow will be better, lots of green showing up in after hours trading.

I'm just waiting on the Fed

Well, the Fed minutes were released today, nothing shocking in them:

Federal Reserve policymakers expressed concerns about "uncomfortably high" inflation and softening economic conditions but remained optimistic about improvements, minutes from last month's meeting showed Wednesday.

The minutes from the March 20-21 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, at which members agreed to keep interest rates steady at 5.25 percent, cited concerns on both the growth and inflation front but showed members expected the problems to ease.

"Meeting participants agreed that, while recent economic data had been mixed, the economy was likely to expand at a moderate pace in coming quarter," the minutes showed.

"However, additional evidence of sluggish business investment and recent developments in the subprime mortgage market suggested that the downside risks relative to the expectation of moderate growth had increased in the weeks since the January FOMC meeting."

The March policy statement stated that inflation remained the predominant concern for the central bank and the minutes highlighted those worries.

"The prevailing level of inflation remained uncomfortably high, and the latest information cast some doubt on whether core inflation was on the expected downward path," the minutes stated.

The market is down, more likely just due to the last 8 days of being up without a down day (profit taking). I'm not worried, I don't see the Fed changing interest rates anytime soon, I think they are at neutral right now. There is tension between slowing growth and inflation that should work itself out over the next few months.

Broncos Schedule Released

Some highlights:

• We open on the road in Buffalo on September 9th
• At the Superbowl Champion Colts on September 30th
• San Diego at home a week later
• Back to Back Primetime games at home against Pittsburgh and Green Bay
• At the Superbowl runner up Chicago on November 25th
• Finally we get a December home game against KC on December 9th
• Closing at home against the Vikings on December 30th.

Here is the full Schedule:
Sept. 9 at Buffalo
Sept. 16 OAKLAND
Sept. 23 JACKSONVILLE
Sept. 30 at Indianapolis
Oct. 7 SAN DIEGO
BYE
Oct. 21 PITTSBURGH
Oct. 29 GREEN BAY
Nov. 4 at Detroit
Nov. 11 at Kansas City
Nov. 19 TENNESSEE
Nov. 25 at Chicago
Dec. 2 at Oakland
Dec. 9 KANSAS CITY
Dec. 13 at Houston
Dec. 24 at San Diego
Dec. 30 MINNESOTA

I see us going 12-4 this year with the losses coming at Indy, KC, Chicago and SD. We will win the division and enter the playoffs as the #3 seed in the AFC.

Fred Thompson & Cancer

Fred Thompson revealed today that he was diagnosed with indolent lymphoma, the "good" kind of lymphoma in the sense that it is not nearly as bad as just about any other lymphoma you can get:

Some lymphomas are very aggressive, but people with slow-growing types, like Senator Thompson's, often dying from natural causes associated with old age, rather than from the disease.

Using a standard prognostic scoring system Senator Thompson has a favorable prognosis.

(snip)

Senator Thompson chose to receive such therapy (Rituxan), but he is no longer in treatment as he is in remission. (link below)

The good news is that his cancer is in remission, and in the event it comes back, it doesn't seem to be life-threatening. Writing over at Red State Senator Thompson said:

I have had no illness from it, or even any symptoms. My life expectancy should not be affected. I am in remission, and it is very treatable with drugs if treatment is needed in the future--and with no debilitating side effects.

I am one of the lucky ones. There are many lucky ones today. And for all of our diversity, we share one thing in common--a deep appreciation for the fact that we live in the United States of America and have the best medicine and the best doctors the world has even known.

The good news is that the cancer is in remission, and it won't affect the quality of his life whether he runs for the presidency or not. But I do wish him the best of luck on the campaign trail (hopefully). This revelation is new to us today, but Senator Thompson has known about it since before he took any measures in exploring a run for the presidency, meaning that he has already taken this into consideration. I still expect Senator Thompson to formally announce in May.

We're all professionals here

Rudy Giuliani and the price of milk

Every once in a while some stupid reporter will ask a stupid question of a political candidate. Okay, so maybe it's more often than "every once in a while."This time the idiot in question is Phillip Rawls of the AP. He asks Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani what the price of bread and milk are. Rudy misses by a little bit, but so what?

From the moron's story:

But when asked about more mundane matters — like the price of some basic staples — Giuliani had trouble with a reporter's question.

"A gallon of milk is probably about a $1.50, a loaf of bread about a $1.25, $1.30," he said.

A check of the Web site for D'Agostino supermarket on Manhattan's Upper East Side showed a gallon of milk priced at $4.19 and a loaf of white bread at $2.99 to $3.39. In Montgomery, Ala., a gallon of milk goes for about $3.39 and bread is about $2.

Giuliani was closer to the mark on the price of a gallon of gasoline.

"Gas, I think, is $2.89," he said

Oh no! Stop the presses, this should be Front Page, above the fold A1 story!!!

First, the reporter didn't know what the prices of bread and milk were, otherwise he would have just said it instead of having to search a grocery store website to find out. But even if our intrepid reporter knew the price of either, does it matter?

I say no and I'll tell you why.

I do all the grocery shopping in our family. I work from home, so I can go during the week when it's less crowded and my wife really likes that since she can't stand the grocery store. So now that we've established that, allow me to let you in on a little secret. I don't know the price of a loaf of bread or a gallon of milk. I guess I probably would come closer than Rudy to their prices since I'm vaguely aware of them (I would have said $3 and $1.50, so I'd be off by a bit too).

When I shop, I just buy more when there is a sale and less when there isn't. But you have to buy bread and milk (and fruit and veggies and meat) every week - sale or not. I don't pay attention to the price of bread that we buy every week and it doesn't matter what a gallon of milk costs because I'm picking one up anyways. I can tell you more accurately what we spend per month on groceries than what each individual item costs, but then I'm not as stupid as Phillip Rawls.

Rewinding the day

My portfolio hit an all time high today, about $150 above my previous high set earlier in January. The Dow was basically flat today, while the NYSE was up about .4% and my portfolio tracks a bit closer to the NYSE, so I was up about the same overall. The last couple of days have been quiet in anticipation of earnings season.

Working today:

• CEE up 1.5% all of my foreign ETFs were up yesterday and today.
• DVN up another 1.7% today following through on yesterday's gains on the Exxon rumors.
• SHLD hit an all-time high today too finishing up 1.8%
• ENA up 18.75%, this stock has been on a tear the last few weeks on heavy volume (9 times the volume today). Enova has doubled in the last month. Someone is accumulating a lot of shares.

Not working today:

• MHP down 1.2%, the last 2 months haven't been too good, but even with that I'm sitting on a 20 point gain in the last couple of years, so a 5 point pull back isn't worrisome.
• UTX down a little less than 1%.

All in all, today felt like yesterday, no big moves in the markets with a slight bias to the upside, and as I'm always fond of saying, I'll take up over down any day. Everyone is awaiting earnings.

Fred can wait, but not too long

Former Senator Fred Thompson is considering a run for the Presidency, he hasn't officially declared his intentions to run yet. He is taking his time, measuring support and enthusiasm levels - a smart thing to do before you jump into the field, much like fellow Tennessean, Bill Frist, who decided not to run after looking at support levels. The Wall Street Journal's Christopher Cooper had a piece about Senator Thompson needing to jump in now because most of the money men are working with other candidates already (free link).

If Fred Thompson decides to run for president, he will have some powerful supporters: The self-described "Tennessee Mafia," a group of Republican politicians from his home state well-versed in the craft of national campaigns. What the actor and former senator may lack is the financial juice that fired the group for more than a quarter century, driving local and national campaigns with astonishing amounts of cash.

"Mafia" members include Howard Baker, a former Republican senator, ambassador and White House chief of staff, who himself ran for president in 1980; Sen. Lamar Alexander, a former two-term Tennessee governor who ran for president in 1996 and 2000; and Bill Frist, the former Senate Republican majority leader, who considered, then rejected his own run for the White House for 2008.

Egged on by a campaign to draft him and buoyed by polls that suggest he would be a serious contender even though he hasn't declared, the conservative and blunt-spoken Mr. Thompson has said he is considering jumping in and may make a decision as early as next month. But in a presidential campaign that is likely to be the most expensive yet -- three candidates have already banked over $20 million in donations -- dithering would seem to be a liability.

I disagree. I think Fred Thompson can wait another month to declare, as long as he gives signals that he is leaning toward running, which he has been sending out.

The money can be raised very quickly. Say he declares and forms his committee in the middle of May, that will give 6 weeks of the 2nd quarter to raise funds. I bet he would out-raise everyone else in the field for the entire quarter. The buzz is all around Fred Thompson launching him into the first tier of Republican nominee seekers, waiting another couple of weeks to declare will give him a second boost.

As it stands right now, every thing is on hold for those who are uncommitted to any candidate. An outpouring of money and support are ready once Fred Thompson becomes an official candidate. Senator Thompson can wait, but not too long.

Dividend Day!

I always love getting dividends. Who doesn't love "free" money? Today I received dividends from Corus Bankshares, Inc. (CORS) and from Altria Group (MO), both were reinvested.

Reinvesting dividends is a great thing. I see it as the company handing me free shares of a stock that I would probably buy anyways.

American Capital Strategies, Ltd. - the dividend

American Capital Strategies, Ltd., (ACAS) is a private equity/buyout firm (and does a few other things as well). The fundamentals of the company look good to me, and I expect the p/e multiple to expand from under 7 to almost double that to be more inline with their competitors. However, the focus of this post is on the dividend. Currently, the stock is yielding a huge 7.8%. Not only that, but the dividend looks fairly safe to me since the payout ratio is only 54%.

I own shares of American Capital Strategies in my brokerage account. I picked some up in the last couple of months during the pullback in the markets. Last week they paid their dividend, it was the first dividend that I received and I have my dividends set to reinvest with my brokerage. This was different than any other stock that I own. The dividend did not reinvest right away, but sat pending for 24 hours in my account. Finally when it did reinvest, it was at a price that was 5% lower than it should have been. I went to American Capital Strategies investor relations website and it was right there: They offer a discount on the reinvesting of dividends, even through a (participating) broker.

I have seen discounts on reinvested dividends, but never before on stocks held in a brokerage account. This all means that my yield is not 7.8% but rather 8.2%. Nice, very nice. I think I'm going to be holding American Capital Strategies shares for a while.

Shanahan Extended!!

Looks like the Broncos will be set at Head Coach for an extra 3 years as Mike Shanahan agreed to an extension:

Broncos coach Mike Shanahan has signed a three-year contract extension, keeping him in Denver through the 2011 season.

Shanahan, 54, led Denver to Super Bowl victories in 1997 and 1998. Since becoming head coach in January 1995, he has led the Broncos to seven playoff appearances and a 123-69 regular season record, best in the NFL over that span.

This off season has been a busy one for Shanahan and the Broncos. I can't wait for the draft later this month - with all the moves made we only have a few needs to address still.

Update:
Wonder how much turnover there's been among other AFC West teams since Shanahan was hired as the Broncos coach? Here are the facts:

Kansas City: 4 coaches - 0 Championships
Oakland: 7 coaches - 0 Championships
San Diego: 6 coaches - 0 Championships

and Denver: 1 coach - 2 Championships

To sum up:

AFC West: 17 coaches - 0 Championships
Denver Broncos: 1 coach - 2 Championships

Rewinding the day

Stocks that were working for me today:

CEE up 3.5%
DVN up 1.5% on speculation from Business Week that Exxon could buy them out.
EQIX up just over 1%
SHLD up 1.25% I assume on the jobs data from Friday that wages and employment are strong, meaning retail is going to remain strong.

Wasn't working for me today:

MO down 1.25% I guess the post Kraft spin-off buying is done.
CORS down 1.7% pin action from American Home Mortgage (down 15%).

All in all, not a bad day. I'll take it when I have more up than down.

Braves atop the NL East!

After sweeping the Phillies and taking 2 out of 3 from the Mets, I am happy to say that the Atlanta Braves are in first place! Of course they were in first place this time last year and then the wheels fell off, but a new year brings new hope.

It's been a year since the Atlanta Braves were alone atop the National League East.

Now, after taking a weekend series from the New York Mets, Atlanta is on top of the division. The Mets ended the Braves' run of 14 straight division titles last season

"Obviously it's huge for us, just from a momentum standpoint," said Jeff Francoeur, who had the go-ahead RBI double in Atlanta's 3-2 win on Sunday. "I think we can compete with the Mets now throughout the year."

The Mets won their first four games before dropping the last two to Atlanta. New York's bullpen, which hadn't allowed a run in 13 innings, couldn't hold a 2-1 lead Sunday.

The win left the Braves (5-1) alone atop the NL East for the first time since April 5, 2006. The Mets moved back into first the next day and led the rest of the season.

They should be alright if the bullpen can cut in half the number of times they blew the lead in late innings last year. I was nervous anytime we had less than a 3 run lead going into the last inning. Lets keep it going boys!

Shooter

This is great, I saw it over at With Leather.

Run Fred Run!

I am really hoping that Former Senator Fred Thompson makes a run for the White House. John Fund of the Wall Street Journal sat down the other day to discuss this possibility. (Full Article) I can say that I’m more excited than before about the possibility of a Fred Thompson candidacy.

I don’t know how much everyone knows about Fred Thompson’s positions, I’ll admit that I’m not as familiar as I am with Rudy, McCain, Romney and Brownback, but the Fund article sheds some light:

First he keeps Reagan’s 11th when asked about the other declared candidates on the Republican side, not afraid to point out his differences without cutting down fellow Republicans:

Mr. Thompson appears serene about all the speculation swirling around him. "Those running are all good guys, and would be good presidents," he says leaning back in a recliner. "But there are truly vital issues--from the looming entitlement crisis to nuclear proliferation--I'm not afraid to talk about. Lots of people have such a low regard for politicians that they're open to a campaign that would be completely different."

Sounds like a man who is seriously thinking about running.

Next, Mr. Thompson recognizes the never-ending campaign world we live in. And (to me) takes a jab at the PaleoMedia (Mainstream Media to those of you in Rio Linda):

"Politics is now one big 24-hour news cycle, but we seem to spend less time than ever on real substance," he muses. "What if someone harnessed the Internet and other technologies and insisted in talking about real issues in more depth than consultants would advise? What if they took risks with their race in hopes that the risks to our children could be reduced through building a mandate for good policy?"

You’re singing my song Fred!

He’s also went through quite a tumultuous period in his personal life from the time he decided to get out of politics and away from the Senate, losing his daughter in 2002. He then got married again and now has 2 more children.

"Within the space of a year and a half, I experienced the ultimate tragedy and the ultimate happiness," Mr. Thompson sighs. "I count my blessings, and I have a real focused sense of purpose now."

The bane of McCain’s existence, CFR:

Many on the right remain angry he supported the campaign finance law sponsored by his friend John McCain. "There are problems with people giving politicians large sums of money and then asking them to pass legislation," Mr. Thompson says. Still, he notes he proposed the amendment to raise the $1,000 per person "hard money" federal contribution limit.

Conceding that McCain-Feingold hasn't worked as intended, and is being riddled with new loopholes, he throws his hands open in exasperation. "I'm not prepared to go there yet, but I wonder if we shouldn't just take off the limits and have full disclosure with harsh penalties for not reporting everything on the Internet immediately."

That is a position I wish McCain would recognize.

He is no Big-Government Conservative, and I believe would be the candidate with the most Federalist credentials.

Mr. Thompson has also been criticized for failing to back some comprehensive tort-reform bills because of his background as a trial lawyer. Here he insists his stance was based on grounds of federalism. "I'm consistent. I address Federalist Society meetings," he says, noting that more issues should be left to the states. For example, he cast the lonely "nay" in 99-1 votes against a national 0.8% blood alcohol level for drivers, a federal law banning guns in schools, and a measure limiting the tort liability of Good Samaritans. "Washington overreaches, and by doing so ends up not doing well the basics people really care about." Think Katrina and Walter Reed.

Small, lean, efficient government that does what it is intended to and nothing more? Oh yeah!

Recognizing that the Federal bureaucracy will not be a friend to any Republican administration (has he been reading Achance’s blogs?):

Mr. Thompson says that while a senator he was long concerned with U.S. intelligence failures. "The CIA has better politicians than it has spies," he says, referring to the internecine turf wars that have been a feature of the Bush administration.

(snip)

The next president, according to Mr. Thompson, needs to exercise strong leadership "and get down in the weeds and fix a civil-service system that makes it too hard to hire good employees and too hard to fire bad ones." He doesn't offer specifics on what to do, but notes the "insanity" of the new Congress pushing for the unionization of homeland security employees only five years after it rejected the notion in the wake of 9/11. "Should we tie ourselves up in bureaucratic knots with the challenges we may have to face?" he asks in wonderment.

On the key issue of the day, the War on Terror and Iraq:

The challenges, he says, are numerous. On Iraq, he admits "we are left with nothing but bad choices." However, he says the "worst choice" would be to have Osama bin Laden proven right when he predicted America wouldn't have the stomach for a tough fight. The costs of Iraq have been high, but they could be even higher "if we have another stain on America like that infamous scene from Saigon 1975 in which our helicopters took off leaving those who supported us grabbing at the landing skids."

Mr. Thompson is especially worried about nuclear proliferation. He serves as chairman of the International Security Advisory Board, along with former Clinton CIA Director Jim Woolsey and former Democratic Sen. Chuck Robb. The board recently received an unclassified briefing that convinced him three or four countries in the Middle East are "on the cusp" of acquiring nuclear weapons should the Iranians carry through with their own weapons program.

He urges continued pressure on Iran, which he says has grave domestic problems. "Iran may fall of its own weight, and we can help that by offering vocal support to dissident groups and making effective use of the airwaves to reach its people."

What about taxes and spending? Taxes too low? Spending not enough?

On domestic issues, Mr. Thompson says a major reason Republicans lost last November was that they aided and abetted runaway government spending. Yet Democrats, he contends, are incapable of following through on their pledges to be fiscally prudent. "Their political coalition needs more revenue like a car requires gasoline," he laughs. "Reagan showed what can be done if you have the will to push for tough choices and the ability to ask the people to accept them."

But Mr. Thompson says those tough choices shouldn't include the tax increases contemplated in the new budget released by Senate Democrats this week. "The phony static accounting the government uses has obscured just how successful the 2003 tax cuts have been in boosting the economy," he says. "Lower marginal tax rates have proven to be a key to prosperity now by Kennedy, Reagan and Bush. It's time millionaires serving in the Senate learned not to overly tax other people trying to get wealthy."

Yep, he’s rich (now), but he still understands America, and understands that times have changed for the middle class:

Mr. Thompson says he can compete with Democrats in talking plainly about the anxiety many Americans have about the economy, despite good macro numbers. "Someone who is 18 today may well have 10 employers in their career," he says. "That's completely different from how their parents lived. I would address that insecurity and help people adapt without shooting ourselves in the foot with protectionism and income redistribution. I had 10 employers before I finished law school."

Read the full article for other questions regarding being single in the 1990s and any skeletons arising from that (hint: he says none). The talk of him not wanting to do fundraising/campaigning ("They used to say I moved slowly," he chuckles. "But I move deliberately. I won every one of my races by more than 20 points in a state Clinton carried twice.")

To add to all of these positions is a great life story. He gained a "reputation as a straight-shooter" while as Republican counsel during the Watergate hearings. He had a big role in cleaning up Tennessee corruption in a “cash-for-pardons” scandal (launching his acting career later when he played himself in the movie). And he’s been filling in for Paul Harvey this month (which means I need to look up when & where it comes on around here). Once again, read the full article.

I’m ready for Mr. Thompson to jump into the race. He’s got the solid conservative principles and the communication skills required for the job. Is he the Second Coming of Reagan? No, no one is. But he may just be the First Fred Thompson.

Altria spins off Kraft, I'm keeping both

No doubt that Altria has been a great stock to own for the last 2 years that I've had it (I think it's up around 60% since I bought it back in April of 2005). Just about a week ago, they fully spun off Kraft. I think both are at attractive levels right now. I'm not going to be adding to my KFT positions, but I won't be selling either. I might look to add more Altria should the stock pull back.

Disclaimer: Don't buy or sell stocks based on the anonymous ramblings of some internet fool like me.

Read up on Microvision, Inc (MVIS)

Breakfast Taco, posting this weekend over at Broker A's Fly on Wall Street (here, here, here, here and here) gives a great rundown on the history of MVIS. It starts a little slow and disjointed, but he really picks up after the first post.

Some choice quotes from when the new CEO was able to masterfully navigate a financial minefield left from his predecessor, with every short on the block betting against the company:

So, Tokman and the boys have been in charge for a scant 14 months and they have produced the world's smallest, thinnest full color laser projector in the world. With the brilliant help from MDB and a successful test they are now debt free with enough cash to get them through the year. They are in negotiations with numerous handset makers and multiple tier one auto suppliers. Three laser manufacturers are tripping over themselves to get in the game to provide lasers to an 800 million unit a year industry getting ready to open up. All of this in 14 moths of the Tokman management team being in charge. He does this in 14 months when it took the previous management team eight or nine years to make a head gear that looked like one of those things the dork in sixth grade would wear to fix his teeth. One day B-Schools around the country will be teaching this in their text books.

Summing up:

Tokman and the crew are sitting on incredibly dispruptive technology, have deals with two contract design manufacturers, and are in various stages of negotiations with many potential customers for automotive, cell phone and accessory versions of the PicoP. In the next few weeks I think you are going to see some deals announced that will amaze you. There are just so many ways for this company to succeed. Oh yeah, don't forget eye wear.

I am long MVIS and am looking to add to my position on any dip in price.

Happy Easter

Hope everyone had a wonderful Easter Sunday!